Bitcoin: Logarithmic regression unveils macroscopic trend line of peaks

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Информация о Bitcoin: Logarithmic regression unveils macroscopic trend line of peaks

Название	:	Bitcoin: Logarithmic regression unveils macroscopic trend line of peaks
Продолжительность	:	16.07
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If you compare this regression to stock prices (eg SP500) you see that stocks behave differently, they are linear in a log scale My theory is that BITCOIN is a log regression because it had to start from 0$ due to null intrinsic value, while stocks have their initial valuation I expect bitcoin to settle to a similar linear growth over the long run, once cycles become big enough spanning over decades
Comment from : Nino Porcino

man you ducking deserve a thumb up for your analysis!
Comment from : anrea picc

The best on YouTube ❤️
Comment from : SAGER89

You sir definitely got a sub from me! Great analysis, I hope you do more coins like ETH, LTC and LINK
Comment from : KMETS523

Rofl, how far are you going to fetch your charts to fit your "2023 top" narrative? Those lines make no sense, they dont even follow the same pattern
Comment from : Andreo Borac

Always wondering what happens when you also use the 'bubble data' It sounds like choosing what fits best for your case, but that might be a wrong assumptionbrbrDo you have a video including the bubble data?brbrThanks and keep up the good work!
Comment from : Md B

With the way the market is going, things may not play out with too much relation to past markets We will see
Comment from : poolboy

What exactly is the value of bitcoin based on? I see no intrinsic value like real estate, stocks, gold brbrWhat I do see is a lot of hype to buy and trade it There's only 18 million shares of bitcoin which probably means a small group of people have most of the leverage Value seems to be based only on confidence
Comment from : W Kurt Dobson

Thanks Benjamin - I watch daily, great info
Comment from : Adam Heslop

How will u consider federal reserve notes inflation or M2 supply into this equation?
Comment from : ghassan M

Please keep doing what your doing for us Thank you!
Comment from : Mr Wiseman

Bitcoin is an unproductive asset, it's value is determined solely by how many people are willing to put money into it You'll be better off looking at the difference between the Google searches "Buy Bitcoin" and "Sell Bitcoin" When Buy starts to tip towards sell searches, get out and so on It suffers from the same issue as Fiat money, sooner or later it will return to it's intrinsic value of 0brbrMight as well read tea leaves as there is no natural consumption or demand for bitcoin, because all it does is exist At least gold has industrial applications, ergo: FIAT Gold is all that it is, with a multitude of other issues
Comment from : Waffes

Wow, no exclamation marks, no CAPS, only in depth mathematical analysis This must be fake news 🤣 Great vid, tnx!
Comment from : Jelle Slim

So what are you saying?
Comment from : 1guysmilely

I believe in 4 year cycles so I don't see us peaking as late as 2023 because that's too close to the halving So at the latest in 2022 imo but we'll see
Comment from : NightOwl

I usually hear your videos while working (construction) and for this kind, I hear them twice in order to catch the main idea Great work and keep going! Grusse aus der Schweiz
Comment from : Xplosive

I renember you saying 50k subs till Christmas is difficult That was like three weeks ago I guess Really great to see how more and more people recognize you and your serious analysis (most of crypto-Youtube seems delusional to me to be honest) I don’t know any other guy putting that much effort in his work Congratz Ben , happy that your subs are incrementing faster now
Comment from : Till Templin

Notice that a part of the text on the slide is covered by your webcam window
Comment from : Dutch79

Institutional investors have already been buying, they just do it in intelligent ways that don't move the market in the way retail buyers do - this is priced into current action Look at Grayscale's recent accumulations as an example
Comment from : Spirit Audio Books

Do you only believe Btc is going to go up?
Comment from : Jenko’s Gold Adventures

As always, interesting!
Comment from : Bas Verniest

Even if your analysis is how things play out, many many people will make a lot of money We are in such an amazing and wonderful time People think they've missed the boat on Bitcoin already, but truth is, the opportunity is here again, and will arrive multiple times in the future as well
Comment from : lunchtime

So is it a good time to invest right now, or should I wait until it's closer to the peak later on and there's a big drop?
Comment from : Lone Drifter

really waiting for ethereum
Comment from : Soham Pal

Thank you from Thailand
Comment from : Paramed Vanit

Great analysis Thank you
Comment from : Mario Nucci

Would you say Chainlink is one cycle behind Ethereum?
Comment from : Mako

Really looking forward to the ethereum version you referred to
Comment from : Bitcoiner Mike

I have no idea what Ben is talking about when he gets into math mode, but I trust that HE knows what he's talking about Thank you for the daily guidance!
Comment from : Thomas B

I'm not a mathematician but I understand price of bread could have some sort of increasing graph like this one through the years but I guarantee you if there is one loaf of bread left among hundreds of hungry people, many will be offering thousands for that loaf of bread It is the simple supply and demand scenario in my humble opinion
Comment from : Red Bug Blue Bug

I don’t understand why you say BTC will pick in 2023 or 24 It has no logic If we compare it to previous halvings, it should happen in the late 2021 or the begging of 2022
Comment from : Marco Mondragon

no ben ive locked up my daughters
Comment from : its D Murphy

Benjamin, what about the fiat system influence ? many people are thinking printing/inflation will force capital in crypto faster and harder
Comment from : Johan PONIN

This was very insightful Thank you
Comment from : pgopal6

Not sure that everything steps lower and lower in fact Elliott Wave and most waves in nature don't just keep progressing/regressing in the same direction Of course those familiar with EW know that primary direction waves run in a 5 count and counter-trends run ABC Gee, the run into the 2017 peak sure looks like 5 waves Within 5 waves, the early and middle waves tend to be steeper, while wave 4 corrections tend to be more flat affairs That's exactly what we see brbrDid we get an ABC into the Dec '18 bottom? Could count it that way So am saying I personally won't be surprised if what occurs this cycle doesn't resemble a wave 1 and is steeper than regression shows But we'll find out, can't wait! Thanks for the creative perspectives!
Comment from : Namrider One

Noticed something on the fair-value graph Each ATH seem to occur at the same time as the "Fair value line" reach the value of the preceeding ATH (Meaning 20K-ish btc price occurs when fair value has reached 1k-ish which was the previous ATH, and the same for the ATH before that Unfortunately there are only two data points to compare)brbrIF this holds up, wouldnt this indicate a new all time high at around q1 2022?brbrAlso couldnt one speculate about the next ATH price by comparing the difference between fair value and ATH price at each previous ATH and see if theres a coherent decrease between each and extrapolate from there?brbrIts a bit difficult for me to gauge from the graph in the video but seem to me that the next ATH should be priced at atleast 5x its contemporary fair value, meaning a BTC price of 100k if ATH occurs in early 2022 brbrSorry if this has already been covered in a video It just occured to me brbrWould be fun if you inspired me to my first own insight though, cheers
Comment from : Erik Danielsson

Everything you calculate is logical and rational However, elliot wave theory suggests that the next 3 bubbles will be of a different trend to the previous 3 I got both, your analysis and mine, on the table
Comment from : imdouce

"Build a bridge and get over it"brbrThis comment wins the internet today
Comment from : Snitty McGeddon

I've seen a lot of Bitcoin charts, you have some very unique and valuable insights! brThank you for sharing this
Comment from : Twig

Very great analysis Thank you for your effort
Comment from : Crypto Salt

Great analysis, thanks
Comment from : Jeff M

According to 4 years cycles, by how much BTC would be overvalued in December 2021?
Comment from : Juan Sole

Thanks for the video
Comment from : Napalm

I want to hear your opposition against plan bs stock to flow charts
Comment from : JETTSONSlaboratories

What’s your price prediction for eth this cycle?
Comment from : xptboy

Your math is so right but your predictions are so off because your so conservative U almost don't want the high price to be next year Look at its natural pattern and stop extending the next high point so far away
Comment from : JETTSONSlaboratories